Thursday, June 25, 2015

PLAN100: Strategic Goals

{Some overly idealistic goals, plans and objectives I wrote up in the early 1990's, and otherwise based on ideas I had in the 1980's and possibly as far back as the 1970's.}

Solve Problems Concerned With
  1. World  shortage  of  food, water, clothing, shelter and protection (security)
  2. Inequitable distribution of world resources
  3. Inappropiate distribution of world population
  4. Inappropiate education systems and ideologies
  5. Inappropiate  political and social systems  and ideologies
  6. Isolation of persons whose health, bodily form or appearance categorises them as handicapped
  7. Disorder,  and randomness of city development, and natural development
  8. Inappropiate narrow mindedness of thought
  9. Unemployment
  10. Lack of materials recycling
Achieve
  1. Achieve Capacity To Design And Construct A City State In A Period No Greater Than Twelve Months
  2. Achieve Capacity To Design And Construct  20 City States Per Year

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Revisions:

[25/06/2015] : Original Post {Origin date of plan unknown}
[09/07/2015] : Added navigation bar to bottom of post. Added Legend.

PLAN000: Mission Statement

{Some overly idealistic goals, plans and objectives I wrote up in the early 1990's, and otherwise based on ideas I had in the 1980's and possibly as far back as the 1970's.}

To design life support systems for individuals and communities to enable them to survive in any environment. At the extreme this requires that humans remain inside a building enclosure at all times or within a capsule as they travel from one building to another. The systems range in size from a suit, to a vehicle, to a dwelling to an entire city. The environments range from land, sea and air, from hot sandy deserts to cold ice and snow fields, to the bottom of the ocean floor, to the surface of the moon, to free floating space station beyond Pluto. To stretch the legs of humanity, to re-invigorate their pioneering spirit, to enable them to travel the universe and to extend the life of humanity beyond the lifespan of the planet earth. In the first instance however the task is simply to mobilize humanity on earth and provide the world population with the means of surviving with a reasonable amount of comfort



Related Posts:


Revisions:

[25/06/2015] : Original Post {Origin date of plan unknown}
[09/07/2015] : Added navigation bar to bottom of post.

Summary Plan

Some overly idealistic goals, plans and objectives I wrote up in the early 1990's, and otherwise based on ideas I had in the 1980's and possibly as far back as the 1970's. Not sure of the date of the source for the original blog post, but I checked through my files and found individual Quattro Pro files (*.wq1) with a linked summary file dated 1992, then single Quattro Pro workbook (*.wb1) dated 1994, then another dated 1998. The year 1998, I believe is just the year I converted most Quattro Pro workbooks to MS Excel 97. Therefore the plans have basically been ignored since 1994,  briefly viewed again when transfered into TreePad business, which would have been some time after [25/01/2010]. Since it is in TreePAD business, which I use for writing most things, I figured  maybe I ought to read and revise the plans.

The Goals were originally wrote up in either WordStar (CPM/80), or WordPrefect (MS DOS), or possibly simple plain text files most likely using Turbo Pascal 3 (CPM/80). These goals were eventually imported into a spreadsheet (Quattro Pro) so that times and costs could be added, thus turning the goals into plans.

Posting on my blog so that I can review and see if actually achieved anything {or what I did instead}, and otherwise assess whether any of it is practical or achievable: and add comments to the goals accordingly.  Also so that the goals can also be revised and transformed into something more practical. In particular some of the plans identify articles to write, software to develop, and services to provide: all of these items can be discussed further in its own blog post and pointed to from the lists of goals. Such appropriate blog posts may have already been written. Additionally others may have independently developed and pursued ideas similar to what I had, and actually implemented them: whilst I merely dreamed.

The original plan numbering was adopted so that could have one file for each set of goals and plans, with a file name complying with the 8.3 conventions and also could have a linked summary sheet (Plan999). The original numbering convention was as follows.

GOAL SETTING           
PLAN000 -MISSION STATEMENT
PLAN100 -STRATEGIC GOALS
PLAN101 -TACTICAL GOALS
PLAN102 -READING LIST
PLAN103 -WRITING LIST
                                   
TACTICAL PLANS
PLAN110-SYSTEMS, METHODS & PROCEDURES
PLAN120-NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANISATIONS
PLAN130-BUSINESS IDEAS
PLAN140-BUSINESS SERVICES
PLAN150-PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT LIST
PLAN180-COMPUTING
PLAN181-COMPUTER SPECIFICATION
PLAN190-MATERIALS LIST
                                   
REGULAR ACTIVITIES
PLAN200

I don't remember the over all philosophy for the above convention, however it was the format of the original plans that I posted. I'm guessing that given  I had no actual time frame in which do do any of the items listed and not otherwise an over all vision, that all was best classified as a tactical goal/plan. That is could use numbers less than 200 for sketching out goals and ideas, and use higher numbers 200 to 900 for more formal and realistic goals and plans, along with standard operational procedures (sop).

Any case this numbering system will slowly be replaced by the following alternative numbering system, with the original blog posts deleted and then replaced with renamed revisions. The initial revisions will now be a composite of the 1992 and 1994 spreadsheets, and will constitute personal goals, as have an independent written document for my Metamorphs entity.

Goals
000 Vision/Mission Statement
100 Strategic Goals [5 to 20 years]
200 Tactical Goals [3 to 5 years]
300 Operational Goals [1 year]

Plans
400 Strategic Plans
500 Tactical Plans
600 Operational Plans

Personal

Vision/Mission

PLAN000: Mission Statement

Goals

[100] Strategic

PLAN100: Strategic Goals

[200] Tactical

PLAN101: Tactical Goals

[300] Operational

PLAN102: Reading List
PLAN103: Writing List

PLAN110: Systems, Methods & Procedures
PLAN120: Non-Government Organisations
PLAN130: Business Ideas
PLAN140: Business Services
PLAN150: Product Development List
PLAN180: Computing
PLAN181: Computer Specification
PLAN190: Materials List
PLAN200: Regular Activities

Plans

[400] Strategic

[500] Tactical

[600] Operational

Business

Golden Grove Engineering Design Services

Original name intended for my fathers structural engineering consulting business. Mostly small private jobs he did whilst still working else where (in hydraulics), and I did whilst still studying mechanical engineering.

Roy Harrison & Associates

My fathers actual structural engineering consulting business started in 1994, which I joined as an informal partner (no bit of paper, no formal agreement).

Metamorphs

My registered business name, for an organisation, that is mostly concerned with research and development. Registered on 1st April 1996, it has never actually traded as such: that is no expenses, no revenue and no profits. But it otherwise produces software and reports.

MiScion Pty Ltd

The current owner of the business name: Roy Harrison & Associates. It now represents a more formal business agreement between myself and my father, with the both of us being shareholders and directors.

Previous Summary Next


Related Posts:


Revisions:

[25/06/2015] : Original Post {Origin date of plan unknown}
[09/07/2015] : Added more background information. And navigation bar to bottom of post.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bundle of my ExcelCalcs UpLoads

{The link to download the bundle is at the bottom of the post.}

Whilst my preference is that my spreadsheets are downloaded via ExcelCalcs and that queries are placed in the ExcelCalcs forum, it is apparent that people request the spreadsheets without need to join ExcelCalcs. Most of my spreadsheets are dependent on links to other workbooks, some .xls and others .xla, in consequence the download limits on ExcelCalcs may prevent new users from obtaining a fully working set of my workbooks. None of my spreadsheets are dependent on XLC , whilst I believe it is good software, I have moved beyond the need to format my calculations in standard text book format. For my comparison of MathCAD/SMath type applications versus spreadsheets read:
Electronic Calculations (eCalc's) .
My primary concern is calculating results and making decisions, not documenting the journey taken, as a consequence I make extensive use of visual basic for applications (vba), with MS Excel primarily being used to provide: a file format, editor, and reporting capability.

The spreadsheets are primarily concerned with structural design of manufactured structural products (MSP). Such products mainly comprise of steel, cold-formed steel, and timber sheds and canopies. The spreadsheets are modifications of the production spreadsheets we have used for design for many years at MiScion Pty Ltd (also Trading as Roy Harrison and Associates).

The spreadsheets we use in-house are for more complete buildings, involving member and connection design (eg. schShedDesignerR01.xls is a cut down version). The idea of releasing the spreadsheets was to provide the building blocks for others to build custom workbooks for other more specific building forms. If people want custom workbooks or vb.net/vba applications for their structural product then I can be contacted at MiScion Pty Ltd.

Structural design of a product can be divided between the following three major activities:
  1. Brief Description: Design Brief
  2. Evidence-of-Suitability
  3. Detail Description:Specification
Provision of Structural Calculations primarily falls into the evidence-of-suitability activity. Whilst drawing falls into both the design brief and specification activities.

Structural design can also be considered divided into the following:
  1. Product Structure/Description
  2. Dimension & Geometry
  3. Design Actions
  4. Design Action-Effects
  5. System/Component Stability/Resistance
    • Design/Assessment of Structural Form
    • Design/Assessment of Members
    • Design/Assessment of Connections
    • Design/Assessment of Interface/Supports (Footings)
The spreadsheets are listed below roughly divide into the above categories. For further information links to ExcelCalcs and Blog posts are provided. At present most of the blog posts simple display the ExcelCalcs page, but in the future I will add more detail about the workbooks. Also note that the graphics on the ExcelCalcs page were put there by the site administrator not myself, and don't always reflect the nature of the spreadsheet: and editing the page is limited, therefore the blog posts here will be up dated and modified first.

(c)Copyright 2015 Steven Conrad Harrison
The Bundled Package Comprises of the following Files:
FILENAME DESCRIPTION Blog ExcelCalcs
gpl.txt

readme.txt

Chart9BTC3 y04m06d14.pdf ColdFormed Steel Sheds Australia Height Span Limits of C-Sections. blog ExcelCalcs


TECHNICAL LIBRARY
schTechLIB.xla Libary of functions. schTechLIB contents blog ExcelCalcs
schTechLIBV2.xla Library without DAO references

ENVIRONMENT
Beaufort.xls Beaufort wind Scale blog ExcelCalcs
as4055.xls AS4055 Simplified wind loading for products blog ExcelCalcs
as4055v1.xls AS4055v2 Simplified wind loading for products blog ExcelCalcs
schWindAssessment_r02.xls Wind Loading to AS1170.2 blog ExcelCalcs



DIMENSION & GEOMETRY


drawWorkSheet2009.xls Experiments with Parametric Sketches using XY Charts. blog ExcelCalcs
schAcadLTCivilScriptWriter.xls Civil engineering Long Profiles and Sections. blog ExcelCalcs
schBuildingDimensions.xls Dimension and Geometry of Gable Frame shed Frame Member Lengths and Bracing Lengths. blog ExcelCalcs
schDrawSection.xls Draw Sections. blog ExcelCalcs
schCADDv2.xls CADD. blog ExcelCalcs


drawShed.zip CAD: Automatic generation of framing plans and elevations simple gable frame. blog ExcelCalcs
sample.dwg

schDrawShed.xls



vbaDXF.zip VBA Experiments Parsing ACAD DXF files. blog ExcelCalcs
DXFtoolsV01.xls

vbaDXF1.xls

vbaDXF2.xls

vbaDXF3.xls



drawShedDC1.zip CAD: Experiments with DesignCAD: Draw 3D framing of American Barn type structure. blog ExcelCalcs
Column1.dcd

schDrawShedDC1.xls



ExcelShapes.zip VBA Experiments with Excel Shapes Layer: Structural Framing Plans. blog ExcelCalcs
struMtrl.mdb

shapesTut01B.xls



drawTut.zip VBA Experiments with ACAD Script Automation. blog ExcelCalcs
drawTut01.xls

drawTut02.xls

drawTut03.xls

drawTut04.xls

drawTut05.xls

SampleSCR1.xls

UnSymmetricalGableSCR.xls

vbaDraw01punch.xls

vbaDraw02.xls

vbaDraw03.xls

vbaDraw04.xls



schHolePunching.xls Estimating: Hole punching requirements for roll-formed sections.




PRODUCT STRUCTURE TREE
bomStructureTreeStage3.xls exploded BOM (Bill of Materials). blog ExcelCalcs
schBOMStructureTreeStage1.xls Indented Bill of Material. blog ExcelCalcs


explodedBOM.zip IE/POM/CAPM Automatic Explosion of Bill of Materials. blog ExcelCalcs
Assemblies.xls

Materials.xls

mrpBOMv2.xls



ASSEMBLY ANALYSIS/DESIGN
schGableCanopyTimber.xls Gable Canopy to Australian Codes. blog ExcelCalcs
schKleinlogel03.xls Kleinlogel. blog ExcelCalcs
schShedDesignerR01.xls Wind Loads on Gable Frame to Australian Wind Code AS1170.2. blog ExcelCalcs


schDesignEngineR01.zip Application for Generation of Height Span Charts Gable Frame Sheds. blog ExcelCalcs
AcadScript.xls

BeamCalc.xls

Building00.xls

DBGtrace.xls

DataCosmos.xlt

DesignEngine.xls

GUI_lib.xls

Geom3D.xls

HeightSpanTableForm.xlt

Klein3.xlt

Primer.xls

RigidFrame.xls

Structure.xls

XStrings.xls

Xmaths.xls

as1170.xls

as4600.xls

struMtrl.mdb





MATERIALS
schStruMtrl.xls Structural Materials Data Steel. blog ExcelCalcs
schTimberMatrl.xls Timber Data for AS1720. blog ExcelCalcs
struMtrl.mdbMS Access database of properties. origin of schStruMtrl.xls.
MEMBER DESIGN
schDsgn1720.xls Calculator assessment of timber structures to AS1720. blog ExcelCalcs
schColdformedCee.xls Example Using Circular References to Force Iteration: Calculation Effective Section Modulus for Coldformed C-Section to AS4600. blog ExcelCalcs
schDsgn4600.xls
schDsgn4600R2013.xls
Calculator for assessment of cold-formed steel structures to AS4600.

Further information on set up can be found here.
blog ExcelCalcs
schDsgn4100.xls Calculator for assessment of steel structures to AS4100. blog ExcelCalcs


CONNECTIONS DESIGN
schTechNote022pt2.xls Tables for strength of bolted joints in thin cold-formed steel sheets to AS4600. blog ExcelCalcs


PRODUCTION AND OPERATION MANAGEMENT
schPlannerCalendar.xls Planner Calendar. blog ExcelCalcs
schWorkStudy.xls IE: Work study flow process chart. blog ExcelCalcs


GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS
centralPlaces4.zip Experiments with Geographical Information System (GIS) central places. blog ExcelCalcs
CentralPlaces4ShedSuppliers.xls



MISCELLANEOUS
vbaObjects.zip VBA Experiments with Class Objects. blog ExcelCalcs
objTut01.xls

objTut02.xls

objTut03.xls



dataStruct.zip VBA Experiments with Abstract Data Structures. blog ExcelCalcs
dataStruct00.xls

dataStruct01.xls

dataStruct02.xls

dataStruct03.xls

dataStruct04.xls

dataStruct05.xls

orgDataStru.xls

treeExperiments.xls



vbaTuts.zip Excel/VBA Tutorials. blog ExcelCalcs
Node.dwg

NodeA.dwg

MyTest.txt

MyTest2.txt

TestNodes2.txt

vbaTut33.TXT

vbaTut00index.xls

vbaTut01.xls

vbaTut02.xls

vbaTut03.xls

vbaTut04.xls

vbaTut05.xls

vbaTut06.xls

vbaTut07.xls

vbaTut08.xls

vbaTut09.xls

vbaTut10.xls

vbaTut11.xls

vbaTut12.xls

vbaTut13.xls

vbaTut14.xls

vbaTut15.xls

vbaTut16.xls

vbaTut17.xls

vbaTut18.xls

vbaTut19.xls

vbaTut20.xls

vbaTut21.xls

vbaTut22.xls

vbaTut23.xls

vbaTut24.xls

vbaTut25.xls

vbaTut26.xls

vbaTut27.xls

vbaTut28.xls

vbaTut29.xls

vbaTut30.xls

vbaTut31.xls

vbaTut32.xls

vbaTut33.xls

vbaTut34.xls

vbaTut35.xls

vbaTut36.xls

vbaTut37.xls

vbaTut38.xls

vbaTut39.xls

vbaTut40.xls

vbaTut41.xls

vbaTut42.xls

vbaTut43.xls

vbaTut44.xls

vbaTut45.xls

vbaTut46.xls

vbaTut47.xls


The zip package can be downloaded free off charge from MiScion Pty Ltd: spreadsheet Bundle . MS Excel should automatically update the workbook links to the current folder. If create a subfolder of "My Documents" called eCalcs and below this create a folder called materials. The materials data files should be placed in this folder. The materials files are:
  • struMtrl.mdb
  • schStruMtrl.xls
  • schTimberMatrl.xls

Revisions:


  1. [26/5/2015] : Original Bundle Release
  2. [11/6/2015] : Updated the zip file to include revised versions of workbooks which had previously been uploaded to ExcelCalcs. These mainly comprise of changes to the AS4600 and AS4100 workbooks, which now have a button to open the section library, and  also worksheet application parameters to enable the DAO functions to find the MS Access database of sections properties (this currently only required for AS4600.). For more information refer to : My spreadsheets DAO and 64 bit Windows 7. For those not using AS4600 there is also a alternate version of schTechLIB which does not have the references to Microsoft DAO 3.6 object library, this is named schTechLIBV2.
  3. [01/02/2016] : Changed source of zip file from dropbox to MiScion Pty Ltd (the family business)

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Ramblings on Pricing and Selling Time

"The successful producer of an article sells it for more than it cost him to make, and that's profit. But the customer buys it only because it is worth more to him than he pays for it, and that's his profit. No one can long make a profit producing anything unless the customer makes a profit using it. " [Samuel B. Pettengill]
Price is not cost plus desired profit. Price is the mutually agreed value of exchange between buyer and seller. Further more unless there are crazy laws in place, it is not necessary to make a profit on each item, it is the over all business which needs to make a profit. Considered another way the contents of a retail store are an assembly of components, it is the sale of this assembly which has to make a profit, not the sale of an individual component within the assembly. If a sole proprietor does not make a profit then they will not get fed: profits are their bread and butter. If a proprietary limited  (Pty Ltd) company with owner-operators does not make a profit, it does not matter as the owners are paid wages by the company which is a different entity than the owners themselves. Therefore a Pty Ltd company can operate as a zero profit company. If there are non-working shareholders then the company needs to make profits.

Desired weekly wages, annual salary or hourly pay rate, are simply numbers pulled out off a hat, they are subjective opinions, they are not a matter of science. At any point in time, there are items in the market place available at some currently defined price. Some of these things are essential to the individual for  survival, others are imposed needs by society, and still others are optional extras. Thus we can identify 3 different levels of income:

1) Survival
2) Social
3) Optional

For an individual can also identify their current level of income, this may be higher than the minimum social level but less than the desired optional level. Whilst we can calculate these levels based on prices in the market place none of these levels are fixed. The survival income for one person can be considerably different than that for another. There will also be differences between different geographical locations, and different cultures. The income levels are therefore relative values not absolute values. Further more individuals have differing capacities to adapt and improvise: so that whilst one person may struggle with a specified minimum wage, another person may flourish or at least get by comfortably. As I have mentioned many times before, once something is released to the market and environment, people will find uses for it way beyond the original intents of the designer.

In similar manner to the income levels for individuals, it is possible to work out different price levels for goods and/or services. However when working these prices out we should also give consideration to the entire assembly of goods and services, or the over all product mix, and  the over all performance of the business. Most important of all is what the buyer is willing to pay. An amount for the price which exceeds what the customer is willing to pay, isn't a price. The amount the customer is willing to pay, is an impression, a feeling, a perception of worth: something pulled out off a hat. That whimsical intangible perception of worth, is transient and can be changed.

So can work out accurately how long a job is going to take and then multiply by an hourly rate, the resultant value however is not the price unless a customer is willing to pay such amount. There should be no buts or may be's about it, the hourly rate was pulled out off a hat. Sure may have checked industrial awards for minimum rates, and checked job advertisements for market rates in excess of the minima: but at the end  of the day all the numbers were dreamed up by someone, and the numbers felt right, or they were all they could afford. Not much point conducting complex mathematical calculations with fiction.

So calculated an amount from time and hourly rate, and the customer perceives it as way too high. If the customer can perceive it is too high, then the person doing the calculation should also be equally able  to perceive that it is too high. Now could review the project, reduce feature's and thus reduce total time, or otherwise revise estimates of times for the existing features, however the real problem is that not every hour is worth the same value.

By being focused on selling time and using a constant hourly rate as a measure of self worth, proposed prices are exceeding the markets willingness to buy. If can pull a number out off a hat for desired annual salary or for hourly rate, then can also pull a number out off a hat to define a fixed price for a project.

Prices placed on goods in a retail store are an indirect negotiation with the customer. If they like the proposed prices they will buy, if they do not like the proposed prices then they will not buy. The retailer therefore has to adjust their prices in response to the market behaviour.

In a more traditional market place, there is a more direct negotiation between buyer and seller. Further more the buyers go to the sellers: there is no annoying people who are not in the market to buy. Such people have no stated need for the items, and no stated discretionary income they are willing to spend on such items, then some seller comes disturbing them: the negotiation has one major outcome no current sale and no future sale. No future sale because there is no price low enough to encourage keeping such an annoying enterprise in business.

Like a retail store, or mail order catalogue, the proposed price has to be there to be found by the potential customer. That means that potential customers need to have reason to visit the vicinity of the stores even though they have no need or intention of buying anything. Shopping malls, plaza's and precincts draw people in with regular consumable services, and whilst there, they may then become buyers of more discretionary items.

So for example, the confectionery stall in a department store draws parents, with kids, into the store. If the confectionery stall is near the middle of the store, the customers then have to pass more expensive items, where upon there is potential to buy such things. The confectionery may not make much profit itself, but it is essential to the over all experience of the store which ultimately results in sale of high value items. Similarly the cafe, potentially makes less profit than the department store selling electrical gadgets and operating from the same precinct. But without the cafe, the precinct is likely to be empty and no one buying tthe electrical goods. Owners of such shopping centres should take such things into consideration before charging the shop rents which are typically seen as extortionate. Be certain as to who is generating the traffic, and who is benefiting from such traffic.

The point is, that price, cannot be calculated. Calculate expected times, give consideration to the cashflow requirements over the time frame of the project., use an hourly rate if must do, but make the final proposed price a judgement. This can be done by applying weightings either to the over all calculated price or to the components of the calculated price.

It should also be noted that whether selling goods or services, there is a component of work which is not directly attributed to the product being sold. The cost of this work needs to be recovered by applying an overhead charge to each item sold. Say for example that intend to spend 2000 hours per year, but only 1000 of those hours are directly billable. The other 1000 hours is used up on adiministration, research design and development of product made available, marketing and finding new projects to work on, learning and training to keep up to date and develop greater proficiency, and a multitude of other minor activities too small to identify or otherwise track. So every hour billed has to cover the cost of every two hours worked. if throw sick days and vacation time in, then every hour worked has to cover even more indirect costs.

That a product has to be designed before it can be made, isn't always noted by the customer, plus many products are just repetitive copies, so there is an expectation that costs of design have been recovered already. Additionally such costs of design are hidden from the customer with respect to physical goods like cars and electrical gadgets, whilst with services it is not all that apparent that design is required in the first place. So can end up formulating an hourly rate which is heavily weighted by factors which have little value to the buyer of services.

Consider a retail store again. The store sits there and people come in and either buy or don't buy the goods which are on display. At the end of the year either the shop made enough money to cover the living expenses of the owner or it didn't. One major problem for the store owner is not so much the price of the items, but the mix of the items and whether or not they are of any value to any of the people who visit the store. If have the wrong product then it won't sell at any price. If have the right product but wrong price then it won't sell.

Now goods and services are interchangeable. A product previously offered as a goods, can be converted to a service or substituted/complemented by a service. A product previously offered as a service can be changed into a physical goods. For example when lawnmowers are few and expensive, then more likely to hire someone to cut the lawn with a mower. When lawn mowers are plentiful and low cost then people more likely to cut their own lawn, if they have the time. There are thus competing  circumstances which shift the demand in favour of either the service or the dependent product.

Similarly designing a building is time consuming activity, but if design the building once and distribute the cost of design across many buildings then the cost of design per item is considerably reduced. This is essential for small buildings, as the cost of engineering is not proportional to the size of the building but to the complexity and risk involved. Small buildings with the same structural form as large buildings require the same design effort. With small buildings therefore the cost of engineering can exceed the cost of the building. With large building projects, fees are likely to be a proportion of the capital value of the project: this can be far in excess of the costs and therefore highly profitable. Whilst for the small buildings the cost exceeds the market price of the engineering: and therefore its is not a viable business to engineer small buildings on a one-off project basis. There has to be repetitious use of the engineering, in the form of documentation, so that the cost of the engineering can be recovered by the sales of multiple documents. Price is therefore intimately tied to the product definition.

Another example is the design and development of web sites, this can be a time consuming exercise and expensive. However today there are many blogging platforms, and more general purpose platforms like WordPress. Almost everyone can build themselves a website in a few minutes. The value of the services offered by the website designers/builders thus decreases significantly. The web designers can jump up and down and complain about the quality of such sites, identify flaws, wish for regulations and monopolies, talk about solutioneering and insist that custom design is a must: but at the end of the day they have to prove the value of their services. Just like architects and engineers of buildings the majority just talk about custom design for the site, they don't actually do it.

A general principle is to introduce no more than 20% of the total features as new, novel and original. These 20% of the features will take 80% of the time. The implication is that if we therefore know 80% of the features or characteristics with certainty then we can calculate the total time for the project: however doing so is likely to generate an unacceptable time frame and unreasonable price if we resort to selling time.

Rather what it tells us, is that the time for 80% of the characteristics is relatively certain, and that it effectively defines a fixed product with a fixed price. The other 20% of the characteristics involve a high level of uncertainty, and therefore a highly variable cost and consequently unknown ultimate price to the buyer. I would contend that the majority of people want to buy off-the-shelf exactly what they want. They do not want the uncertainty of custom design at the point in time they seek suitable product to satisfy their needs. Designers and makers therefore need to be pro-active and make product available for selection. Concept documents are easier to produce than full production documentation, and documentation is easier than actual manufacture of physical object. When it comes to computers and digital products then production and distribution are relatively low costs.

A society built around selling time is going to be in big trouble when production times are cut to near zero. Whilst time may be a measure of an employees work, it is not a measure of the employees contribution to the income of the business. People become self-employed so that they get a greater share of the income that they perceive their work actually generates: though without all the resources of their previous employer the usual result is that the self-employed person earns less but possibly with less pressure. Some employees have to generate income to cover wages of other employees: employees who do not produce directly billable or saleable work.

If don't sell time then what do you sell? In the main sell expertise and know how, and willingness to do the work required. For example the person selling lawn mowing services could charge by the hour or sell at a fixed price. They have a willingness to do work that the home owner may not be interested in, further more they can develop expertise in grass and weeds, they can turn a weed ridden patchy lawn, into a well manicured lawn. Household lawns have relatively similar sizes therefore all take similar time to complete, so a fixed fee would be possible. However different lawns irrespective of the size may require different amounts of work to maintain depending on the environment, and depending on whether in a poor state needing improvement or a good state needing maintenance. This may therefore suggest having hourly rates and selling time. I suggest this is a bad idea.

To start with most things have a minimum fee. So for example say that decide want $30/hour and determine that the time required for the job is 0.5 hours, therefore the fee for the job is $15. From a perspective of convenience however people are likely to have more $20 dollar notes in their wallets than fives and tens, at a sale price of $15 the supplier needs a ready supply of $5 dollar notes to provide change to the customers. The hourly rate was a desired rate, its not an absolute. Does $20 seem unreasonable for the work? Note that people go into stores and hand over a lot more than that, for physical goods, in a few minutes.

Take from another perspective the job takes 2 hours and therefore the fee would be $60, does that seem reasonable and is it convenient to pay? Would it be better if the fee was dropped back to $50? Similarly is an hourly rate of $29.95 a sensible rate to have? It may mislead some people into working with blocks of 20 instead of 30, which is roughly the marketing objective of such prices: however the customer is not going to be happy with the final price if they believe they have been misled.

Note that it is the seller setting the buyer up with perceptions of price. A seller should have some awarenesss of average incomes, and disposable portion of income, for their market sector. Also if accept cheques or credit cards then the inconvenience of various denominations is removed, but then again there are minimum fees which are acceptable.

Given that in an industrialised nation less than 10% of population is involved in agricultural, can assume that the majority of the population is attempting to grab a share of the disposable portion of peoples income, that portion not required for food or other essentials. Assuming that with time all the other essentials also only requires a small portion of the population: housing for example, once it is built it can last for 50 to 100 years possibly longer: so with the bulk of the housing existing already do not expect many people involved in housing construction. So have a relatively small percentage of population supplying essentials, and rest trying to find something to supply.

Time isn't really something that people want to buy, especially if the output of the work effort is lower quality than they could produce themselves, and their own hourly pay rate is less than that of the service purchased. The funds available to the buyer are an important aspect of how they perceive value. For example say that a person can put $50 away each week, then they can save $2600 per year. Then chances are they are not going to be impressed paying some $1800 for a weeks worth of design producing a few drawings and some calculations: if the perception concerns selling and buying time and the report they get turns out to be defective relative to their needs but otherwise what they asked for. The longer it takes to save the money the more discerning the buyer is likely to be about the purchases they make: on the other hand they may lack adequate knowledge to make a proper selection of suitable supplier.

{... lost my track.}


However, just because should avoid selling time, doesn't mean shouldn't measure time.

Monday, June 16, 2014

More on Engineering, and Engineers in History

As indicated else where across my blog, I hold an idealistic view of engineering. That idealistic view states that engineering only takes place at the frontiers of science and technology. I believe that this view is held out by history, and this started to be seriously distorted by the middle of the 1900's when the focus became on engineer as a licensed profession. Still I consider the WFEO Washington Accord, defining the engineer in terms of education, to support my view that engineering is at the frontier rather than concerned with established technologies. Most people with a B.Eng don't put the intent of  their education to use, and instead become guardians of safety assessing suitability of proposed adaptations and implementations of the established generic technologies: technicians with an abstract and esoteric box of tools and techniques.

I believe that people have grabbed the wrong end of the stick when they consider Telford, Navier and Stephenson to be engineer's simply because they designed  and built bridges. People were designing and building bridges long before they arrived on the scene, and people without the title engineer were designing and building bridges during their time.

The important factor is that they were operating at the limits of human knowledge and past experience, they were stepping into the unknown and the potential success of their endeavours was uncertain to them: however they weren't making wild guesses, they were progressing in a disciplined and learned manner. The past experience coming from the works of Vitruvius and the means of moving forward coming from Desaguliers Experimental Philosophy.

Telford was making use of materials and structural forms not previously used, He tested the materials and otherwise built smaller prototype versions of his bridges. These prototypes provided practice in the construction process, tested the concept and provided something with which to communicate the objective to workers on the larger projects.

Navier made use of untested mathematical theory which turned out to be a big mistake. But once he had validated the theory and calibrated it against reality it became a useful and productive theory for the design of all manner of beams.

Robert Stephenson along with William Fairbairn built prototype segments of a tubular bridge in a workshop and tested, and otherwise through trial and error resolved problems concerned with buckling of plates. With the services of Eaton Hodgkinson providing a mathematical assessment of the proposed bridge based on the then developing structural theories. Still a prototype bridge was built first before tackling the main project.

Today the technical science for establishing the suitability of a proposed bridge is well established. Whilst fitness-for-function is a matter of subjective judgement, technical science is available to assess whether the desired performance can be achieved from a given proposal. The uncertainty and risk of failure are low: but only so long as persons highly conversant in the technical science and the technical characteristics of the proposed variant of a generic technology are responsible for assessing and approving the proposed design.

When at the frontier, there is no expert to turn to, no literature with the answer, the answer has to be extracted from nature itself, and that requires trial and error experimentation. But experiments themselves can be dangerous. So a disciplined, rational and controlled approach needs to be taken to the experimentation. The trials and errors are not a result of wild guesses, but thoughtful consideration.

The ingenious contriver of civilisation asks questions and goes in search of answers. They do not sit on the authority of their formal education and approved license, for such is trite and inadequate for their role as pioneer pushing forward the frontier.

Society however is not asking for any frontiers of science and technology to be pushed forward. In the main they simply seek the proper implementation of the established technologies. With respect to these established technologies people have certain expectations, some reasonable others unreasonable and impractical. In terms of the reasonable, people do not expect: the wheels to fall off cars, they don't expect to fall through the floor of their house, they don't expect bridges to collapse when they drive over them, they don't expect ships to sink, or planes to fall out off the sky. These are established technologies and we can take reasonable steps to ensure they perform as expected.

Engineering science and Engineering made these technologies feasible in the first instance, they defined the generic class of technologies from which variants can be developed. The engineering is for all intents and purposes is over. Sure there are still frontiers associated with these technologies, but its a long journey through extensive literature before bump into the current frontier. Civil, industrial, mechanical, electrical, chemical these are all technologies not disciplines of engineering. Engineering is at a frontier, it is not yet classified, and when it is, then the engineering's over: that's the point of science and engineering. Mechatronics is not a new engineering discipline, it is a new area of technology.

Industry needs people who are conversant with the established technologies and who are able to adopt, adapt and apply these technologies to achieve specific objectives. This is not engineering it is technical design. Engineers the likes of Smeaton and Coulomb operated at the frontiers where they had no access to appropriate technical science, they developed the technical science and published papers and presented lecturers to share such knowledge. The published papers could be read by others and the theories contained within put to work. But most importantly such published papers can be referenced by others, they set a benchmark. For example no one should get buried in a trench because we have the technical science to design a technical solution to avoid collapse of the trench walls. If a trench wall collapses we can reference national standards, safety manuals and industry manuals and a variety of textbooks, reference manuals and journal articles. The collapse of a trench wall is largely an avoidable event, and the literature provides the means to avoid. There may be uncertainty in the characteristics of the materials and the quality of the workmanship but such uncertainty can be kept to a minimum. If there is a trench collapse we can identify that the persons involved failed to exercise adequate duty of care.

Information is being consolidated and organised and disseminated faster than ever before. It is important therefore that the available information is used to properly assess new implementations and adaptations of the established technologies.

Unfortunately there is also a problem of information overload which hinders getting anything done. Only the real world physical system is fully informed about itself. Anything else can only contain partial information, the importance of design is to make abstract and give consideration to the critical characteristics: not attempt to simulate a complete virtual reality due to inability to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Recommended Reading:
1) J.E.Gordon (1991), Structures, or why things don't fall down.Penguin
2) Jacques Heyman, (1999), The Science of Structural Engineering, Imperial College Press
3) Stephen P Timoshenko (1983), History of the Strength of Materials, Dover
4) S.C.Hollister (1966), Engineer: ingenious contriver of the instruments of civilization, Macmillan career book





Sunday, June 08, 2014

Metamorphs: Origin of the name

Back in 1996 I was getting bored, that was only getting to do structural drafting whilst had interests and capabilities, and qualifications beyond that. I was also opposed to the continuous improvement movement which seemed to be missing the perspective that a business needs to be dynamic and adaptive to respond to the dynamic environment in which it operated. An environment which is transformed by the very presence and action of the business enterprise. A world of chaos and uncertainty. Fluid as the imagination, like swirling paint mixing colours, the opening sequences to both Dr Who and the original The Tomorrow People. Not static: dynamic and moving, evolving. That utopia is static, and unsustainable, and is no where, and if somewhere, it is no where I want to be, and want to have no part in creating. Utopia if it is to be somewhere has to be dynamic: a dynamic utopia {something I started to write about in 1986}. A dynamic utopia is adaptive and evolving: and is built upon appropriate technologies best adapted to the environment in which it has to exist. Dynamic utopia can provide the basis of building habitat in space, and marching across the universe: to boldly go ... That the journey is more important than the destination. If the Sun has something like 6 billion years left (the number seems to vary), then have 2 billion years to find a new planetary home,  2 billion years to return and say, hey we found it, and 2 billion years to return. Just one little problem, if can survive travelling through space for 2 billion years, who needs a planet. {This thought came to mind watching the original Battle Star Galactica. Did they really need to get to their destination, and what then?} It is the exploration, the journey that has value, that is life.

So with this swirling chaos in my mind I wrote down a multitude of names that I dreamed up, one of which was Zhymekt {serious holistic industrial and mechanical technology}. Thus the names involved changes to letters of the alphabet, but main objective was to get reference to industrial and mechanical, to consider appropriate and adaptive technology, with implication of fluid imagination and Morpheus shaper of dreams. With a pocket book full of possible names, I went to the business names registry office to check the availability and register "Adaptive Technology", my preferred choice. At that point in time could only check the names at the registration office and that required a trip to the city {Now can check names on line, and nationally}. Already procrastinated long enough, so it was going to be a day of action, check availability and get it registered. Adaptive Technology, was already taken and so were many variants, and so Metamorphs was checked and became the instant replacement and was registered: for a business or rather enterprise that was going to pursue research and develop parametric generic models of adaptive technologies, and some other idealistic hyperbole.

Metamorphs produces, but it doesn't really trade. I make my living (?) through my fathers business Roy Harrison and Associates, which in 2009/2010 we went to register on the national companies register and found the name was taken, and so came up with MiScion Pty Ltd {which can be interpreted as: me off shoot (1.Scion 2.Scion). Except that the word "me", is pronounced with with the letter "i" having the sound as in the word "pit".}. Locally we still have registration of Roy Harrison and Associates as a business name, just not suitable for national usage.

So Metamorphs is where I pursue everything beyond structures: and doesn't have anything to do with MiScion Pty Ltd or Roy Harrison and Associates: though all the structural software I create and we use in the business has the name Metamorphs on it.

Any case the following are the two original descriptions for the name:


Version 1:

Meta : Transcending above and beyond
Morph : Form and structure

=> Transcending above and beyond structure

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Implications:
•The meanings of words are unclear and imprecise.
•The definition of an object can either be fixed and refer to a clearly defined instance of that object.
•Or the definition can be unclear and refer to multiple variations of a generic form.
•Some people have open minds and can see the generic nature of objects, others cannot
•
•Services not restricted to Structural Engineering Drafting & Design
•Structure is an abstract concept and can apply to objects other than buildings
•From an Industrial Engineering viewpoint Organisation structure is not fixed and can be changed
•
•Analytical Computer models are dependent initially on structured view of an object. But these models should be parametric, flexible,adaptable, and amorphous.
•The Language of Object Oriented Programming (OOP) provides the terminology for discussing an object oriented universe.
•Defining a specific instance of an object, or a generic object that is a description of a collection of like objects, is a never ending task of refinement.
•Language itself is dynamic, and the meanings of words change with time
•Objects do not have to be physical material things. They can be abstract ideas.
•
•Laws of thermodynamics suggest that mass and energy can neither be created nor destroyed just transformed from one form to another.
•The Gaia hypothesis suggests multiple levels of organisation structure and the emergence of higher forms of life. Cells congregate into multicellular lifeforms. These multi-cellular lifeforms congregate into societies, villages, cities, states, nations.
•The Gaia hypothesis suggests that there is a two way interaction between life form and environment. The mere presence of a Life form in an environment changes the environment. The life form needs to be continuously adapting to the constantly changing environment

Most of the form and structure that we perceive in the universe does not exist in reality, and is imposed by our own imaginations. If it does exist then it is transient, and exists for a short time frame. Even our perceptions and understanding change with time. So that patterns that were perfectly clear and obvious yesterday become a complete mystery to us today.

Metamorphs seeks out abstract generic definitions of objects. With such generic definitions perceptions of need can be transformed, undergo metamorphosis, and give birth to radically new objects.

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 Change one thing and you change everything ! 

Version 2:

Transcending above and beyond Structures.

Just as carbon, under extremes of temperature and pressure, deep within the earth can be transformed into diamond, and caterpillars emerge from their cocoons as butterflies. So too, it is possible, for engineers to transform the dust of the earth into valuable live sustaining resources. To an Engineer the Physical World is as Fluid as the Imagination.

Metamorphs seeks out abstract generic definitions of objects. With such generic definitions perceptions of need can be transformed, undergo metamorphosis, and give birth to radically new objects.

A bicycle becomes a rickshaw, becomes electrified railway, becomes telegraph, becomes internet. The need for transportation is transformed and displaced by the need for communication.

Confucius stated that "learning starts with the precise meaning of words". However the ancient Greek metaphysics philosopher Cratylus  considered that change was so complete and total that he believed that the meanings of words change the very instant that you uttered them.

The word Broadcast is an example of a word where our common perceptions of its meaning has changed with time. In the 1880's the common frame of reference was farming, and it meant to scatter seed widely with the hand. Today the frame of reference is information cast broadly by electronic mass media in the form of radio and television, and now the internet.

The meanings of words change through analogy and metaphor. With time the origin of the meaning becomes lost, and the metaphor reflects the common understanding of a word.

What is this ? If you say pencil, then you know its name, what we call it, but not what it is.

It is : The existential brain cell of a Cray supercomputer. An instrument for communication through visual symbols. A graphite based electrical resistor. A craft tool for sculpting clay. It is raw material.

What it is, is determined by the environment in which it is found. The needs, imagination's , and adaptive capabilities of those who find it available as raw material.


Once a product, whether it be a goods or service, hits the market place, the public arena, its purpose and function changes. The original design specification and intent become obsolete. And a need arises to redesign the product to match its actual usage, but once released, the process repeats itself, in a never ending cycle.


Revisions:
[08/06/2014] : Original Post
[11/07/2015] : Minor Formatting changes, and links added.